Sunday, 9 May 2010

Why power now is a poisoned chalice to all but Gordon Brown

The oddities of this fascinating election have somehow delivered a result in which every party can look at their position as a victory or a loss. For the Tories having asked for a majority against an unpopular incumbent and failing to get one is nothing short of catastrophic. This is despite the Ashcroft money, lack of Clegg bounce and a supposedly able candidate. If Cameron cannot carry the people of the UK given such favourable conditions then he surely can't carry the country through the impending economic and financial crises. whereas in the USA Clinton can stand next to Obama after a bruising negative campaign the British electorate is less likely to accept that kind of arrangement. The Liberal Democrats for their part have shown that they are at national level what they have always been at local level a party that will go with the prevailing bias of the day. Their moral elasticity will allow them to claim to be anything to everyone  for a sniff of power. There are however a few factors outstanding that may mean the Lib-Con dalliance can achieve what was thought politically impossible- namely putting a genuine smile on Gordon Brown's face.
The offer of PR is a deal breaker for any Clegg-Cameron alliance. Without this, Clegg will have missed a once in a generation opportunity to bring the two party system to an end. The other factor is that the only person that doesn't mind tarnishing his political brand during this temporary and most austere of parliaments is Gordon Brown. So while Clegg and Cameron are tanning themselves during this permutational merry-go-round of potential power, they will learn that any heir to Blair has to live with the immovable sun blocking shadow of Gordon.